Past evidence shows a clear correlation between general election results and movements in house prices and property markets. And here in Norwich it’s no different. Over the last nine general elections, the data shows that there is a dip in the market in the run up to the election. This is because uncertainty about the result means people are a little more cautious about investing. It’s only natural to wait and see the result and how this might affect prices before putting any money down.
However, this election is different. There has been no long run up and the snap decision (despite several firm confirmations to the contrary) has caught investors slightly off guard. This is no ordinary election, and so the reaction is a little different too.
After the vote
As usual, we can expect to see a little bounce back after the vote is announced. Whatever the result, people like to see certainty. Once one or other party is elected, at least you know roughly where you are going to stand for the next five years.
Usually, the first three months after the election see the highest bounce in prices. However, the short run up means the movement in the market may be smaller this time around. In fact, the snap decision might have even been beneficial as it means buyers and sellers haven’t had the time to hang around and wait for the result, which tends to slow everything down.
The likely winner?
Recent years have seen a clamp down on landlords, with increased stamp duty and other factors affecting return on investment. This is a trend that seems likely to increase whoever wins, as frustration about spiralling prices and the inability of young people to get on the market causes voter frustration. But traditionally, the Conservatives have been more cautious to place any restrictions on the market than Labour. Then again, the stamp duty hike was a policy of theirs.
The polls seem to show that a Conservative victory is likely but in all honesty, nothing in politics these days is certain. As we try to come to terms with how the unexpected Brexit vote is going to affect the market in the long run, it makes the general election seem a little less important than perhaps it usually is.
If you’d like to talk more about how the election might affect prices and find out how the market is fluctuating in the Norwich area, then you can talk to our experts at Agile. We’re always happy to chat.
To find out more about the local and national property market, or if you would like to chat about anything to do with property investment, give us a ring on Norwich 01603 567804 or send us a message.
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